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| Simulation analysis of casualties in a single nuclear attack |
| YUAN Long, FU Ximing, SUN Quanfu |
| National Institute for Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088 China |
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Abstract Objective To assess the extent of harm and impact to the public by a single nuclear attack.Methods Using theoretical tools such as nuclear weapon explosion parameters and atmospheric diffusion models, the toll of nuclear explosion in specific scenario can be calculated.Results The number and geographical distribution of trauma, thermal burn, and radiation injuries after a single nuclear weapon attack in potential conflict hotspots are obtained through calculation, and the distribution maps of nuclear explosion effects are also provided.Conclusion Considering the mass casualties caused by a single nuclear attack, it is recommended to strengthen the study on the outcome of nuclear explosion, to assess the existing health emergency system, and then to improve the medical response capability to nuclear or radiological emergency based on the assessment.
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Received: 16 December 2018
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