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| Forecast Analysis on Demand of Medical Workers in Sichuan Province Based on the ARIMA Model for Deploying the Nuclear Emergency Medical Resources |
| HE Ling1, WANG Meng-jie2, LIU Fang2, LI Jia-yuan2, YANG Fei3, GAO Yi-ying1 |
1. Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China;
2. West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University;
3. Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention |
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Abstract Objective To forecast the demand of medical workers from 2014 to 2020 year by the data of medical workers in Sichuan province, and provide foundation for deploying the nuclear emergency medical technician resources rationally. Methods The demand of medical workers was analyzed and forecasted by the ARIMA(1,2,1) Model with Selecting the medical workers from the data during 1995-2013 from Sichuan Health Statistics Yearbook, Sichuan Statistical Year Book and Statistics Bulletin of Sichuan Statistics Bureau. Results It showed that the demand of medical workers in Sichuan province would rise smoothly, up to 649 700 in 2020 year. Conclusion It is suitable for forecasting the demand of the medical workers by ARIMA model. Then it should strengthen the efforts to train and bring in medical workers in order to deploy the nuclear emergency medical workers resources rationally and improve the nuclear medical emergency disploying capabilities.
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Received: 18 April 2014
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