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| The Study and Prediction of the Total Number of Radio-diagnosis and Radiotherapy Examinations in Hospitals |
| SU Yin-ping1, LU Gui-cai2, XIAO Guo-bin3, DU Xiang4, SUN Quan-fu1 |
1. Key Laboratory of Radiological Protection and Nuclear Emergency, China CDC, National Institute for Radiological Protection, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100088 China;
2. Ningxia Center for Disease Prevention and Control;
3. Ningbo Municipal Agency for Public Health Inspection and Supervision;
4. Jiangsu Center for Disease Prevention and Control |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the relationship among the basic data as the number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations and the number of outpatients and emergency visits in some investigated hospitals, and predict the total number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examination in the past ten years of China.Methods Three areas were selected from central, east and west in China. Local health inspection and center for disease control and prevention were responsible to collect the structured questionnaires developed to collect the information including institutional name, grade, number of beds, number of outpatients and emergency visits, number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examination in 2014 and so on. Public data from China health statistics yearbook and GLM model were used to predict the total number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy and CT examination in the past ten years in China.Results There were 390 institutions were investigated covering 88.7504 million of outpatients and emergency visits, 10.9905 million of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations, and 2.9547 million of CT examinations. The proportion of number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations in the number of outpatients and emergency visits in the primary, secondary and tertiary hospital were (4.8±1.8)%,(12.5±3.3)%,(16.5±5.5)%, respectively. The proportion of the number of CT examinations in the number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations in the primary, secondary and tertiary hospital respectively were (21.5±13.7)%,(33.1±5.5)%,(32.1±7.8)%.Through regression analyzing, number of CT scanners, different regions and grade of hospital were the main influence factors on the proportion of the number of CT examinations in the number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations. The annual growth rate of the number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations was 7.8% in the period of 2005-2014, and 11.7% for CT examinations. The predicted number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations was 335.9396 million and the number of CT examinations was 64.2845 million in 2014.Conclusion The number of radio-diagnosis and radiotherapy examinations can be predicted through the number of outpatients and emergency visits to some extent, and the method need to be further researched.
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Received: 09 April 2017
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